New on TV: The X Factor

If you've consumed mass media for more than three minutes over the last year, you've seen or heard something about Simon Cowell's new singing competition show, The X Factor. And if you've consumed mass media for more than three minutes over the last decade or so, you've probably seen a show that's very similar to The X Factor.

As much as the show would like to stake a claim to originality or uniqueness, it's pretty much American Idol meets America's Got Talent meets The Voice meets (insert show here). Auditions happen, some good and some bad (thankfully, this show isn't drawing out the bad like AI does). Judges say things, and some contestants are passed through to the next stage of the competition, all in the hopes of winning the $5 million grand prize (now actually in cash rather than a potential for making that much).

That being said, there are some differences between this show and Cowell's old show. Contestants can be any age 12 and up, and can include groups. Those making it past the audition are put into four groups (men, women, groups and "older performers") for mentoring and development prior to competing. In fact, this sounds a lot more like The Voice than anything else.

The auditions also take place in front of a live audience (like The Voice, again, which makes me wonder who is ripping off who here), comprised of 4300 of the loudest, most easily entertained people the producers could find. Seriously, this audience will clap and holler for pretty much anything (outside of the guy who dropped his pants during his audition, he got booed). I do think the audience makes a difference - it can build or erode confidence depending on the performance, certainly - but I wish it was a little less manic.

The judging panel is comprised of Cowell, Paula Abdul, Nicole Scherzinger (replacing Cheryl Cole and her Geordie accent) and L.A. Reid. They do pretty much what judging panels do on these shows, and are thankfully more willing to be honest than the AI folks. I especially like L.A. Reid, who manages to be no-nonsense without being a jerk. The producers did try to drum up some sort of conflict with him and Cowell based on their disagreements over contestants, to no avail. At this point at least, there's no ill will there.

People who are into the whole Simon-Paula dynamic, or into the glitter and unicorn-filled world that exists in Paula's head, will be disappointed. In the early going, at least, they played nice and Paula was as coherent as the next person.

There's a heavy redemption angle to the show, as the ratio of successful contestant to compelling/emotional backstory was pretty much one to one. I will say that hearing about the importance of the audition or how someone's whole life is about this moment resonates more when its from a single mom in her 40s than some 19 year old whose "struggle" only exists in their head. I have nothing against redemption, just hoping this doesn't turn into Dr. Phil: The Musical or something.

Whether or not the show is worth watching hinges on your expectations. If you're expecting a singing competition that's new and fresh and full of Fox attitude, well, sorry, you're going to be disappointed. If you just like singing competitions and are sick of the parade of meh that's been coming out of AI the last few years, you may find something to like here.

Nice Going, America

Finally fulfilling the destiny set by past seasons of mediocre finalists, American Idol has finally produced its least interesting final pair in show history (replacing Taylor Hicks and Katherine McPhee in my book, YMMV).

Really, what is there to say about Scotty McCreery or Lauren Alaina that is even remotely interesting? Both are teenagers from the South who sing country music. Other than that, the only things I can tell you about the pair is that Scotty plays baseball and Lauren's mom has a hideous hairdo.

Can they sing? Sure. Are their performances interesting? No. The only real comments made about Scotty's performance is his preference for holding the microphone to the side of his face, while Lauren mostly seems challenged in finding the right outfit. If you told me right now I'd win a million dollars if I could name any one of the three songs each of them did this week, I'd lose. I only remember Lauren did "I Hope You Dance" because it was so obvious that I was surprised she'd not done it previously.

As much as this irritates me, recent history suggests we won't hear from the winner (or even the runner-up) much after the finale, so we've got that going for us.

Not Shocking

As much as I was disappointed to see Casey Abrams get the book on American Idol, it wasn't surprising. This is about the time where a talented but not Top 40 enough contestant might bow out (think Jennifer Hudson or Chris Daughtry), and Casey's jazz-inflected stylings fit that bill perfectly. I do look forward to seeing what he comes up with for his first album, which he will hopefully have a fair amount of control over.

As far as what this means for who will win, we're on quite the run of pleasant mediocrities taking the title, so I suppose this paves the way for Scotty, Lauren or Haley, all of whom are likable enough but not that exciting. I am holding out hope for James Durbin, but he may be too close to Daughtry territory to hang on. I have almost no hope for Jacob Lusk, who has reigned himself in too much for my taste. He needs to unleash his inner diva again.

When Did American Idol Become a Sausagefest?

In case you missed it, Pia Toscano got sent home from American Idol tonight. As surprising as that was, it did further this season's trend of sending women home. The only male finalist to be up for elimination has been Casey Abrahms, who was saved by the judges and hasn't been in trouble since. Other men have been in the bottom three, but all have survived.

This is actually part of a larger trend, which has only seen one woman, Crystal Bowersox, make the finale since Jordin Sparks won the whole thing in season six. So what's the problem with the ladies? I have three theories.

1. Too many teen and tween girls voting. It's an assumption - it's not like we get demographic data about the voters - but given the popularity of the show among younger viewers, it's not an unreasonable assumption. It's also an assumption that they'd vote primarily for guys, but I think that's also a safe assumption (you don't hear any of those Twilight fans talking about a Team Bella, do you?).

2. The women are boring. A value judgement, but maybe a good one? The guys have either interesting styles (Jacob's theatrics, Paul's rasp, etc.) or interesting stories/looks (Casey's beard and attitude, James' disabilities, etc.). The women? All fairly normal. I don't even think we have a mom in the group this year. The women also seem more pigeon-holed stylistically, which also limits their appeal. Pia did go out after doing her first up-tempo number, but she ended it with one of those glory notes she'd been tacking onto songs all season, which was getting old.

3. Gender-inappropriate mentoring? - I'm kind of making this one up as I go along, but all of the mentoring this season has been done by men. Jimmy Iovine, Rodney Jerkins, Don Was, and so on, there's not been a women in the house except for Mary J. Blige's walk-on while Jacob Lusk was in the studio. We did get Gwen Stefani to help the women - with their outfits. It's not like the men have never worked with women, but I would think having some women to help out might help, if even just psychologically.

Now as to why the only women left are Lauren and Haley... I don't think I can answer that.

American Idol - Four to Go

Last year, I handicapped American Idol when it got down to the final four, so I figure I should do so again this season. However, thanks to the magic of the DVR, I'm six weeks behind. So take these with an even larger grain of salt than usual (remember, I had David Archuleta at 1-4, and look how that turned out).

Kris Allen - I don't have much of a read on him, as he didn't get a lot of focus during the early part of the season. He's done pretty well in the first couple of episodes (and clearly does well going forward), but to me he's still a bit of a non-entity, at least compared to the other three. I suppose he'd be the "cute" one who makes the top five but never wins. I don't expect he'll be the guy to break the streak. But I may be underestimating him.

Odds of winning: 15-1

Danny Gokey - Unlike Kris, Danny did get a lot of attention in the early going, between auditioning with his best friend (who did not make the semifinals) and his tragic backstory (his wife died due to complications from heart surgery). But he sings well enought that he'd probably have made it this far regardless. Paula predicted he'd make the finals, and I can't say that I disagree.

Odds of winning: 6-1

Allison Iraheta - Allison was clearly the best of this season's subpar group of women. That she's made it this far isn't particularly surprising, as (from what I can tell) she's been very consistent and performs well in her rocker niche. Like Syesha Mercado last season, she's well-positioned from a demographic standpoint, as she's not only the lone remaining woman, she's also the only remaining teen and the only non-white competitor still in the field. While that didn't work out so well for Syesha, it may help that Allison appears to actually have a personality.

Odds of winning: 7-1

Adam Lambert - He's the other person Paula put into the final in her early season prognosticating, and despite a scare last week he seems like he'll make it. And while I don't dislike Adam per se, I can't say he's a fave. I'm not a fan of his emoish look, and in close ups I could swear we're looking at someone closer to 37 than 27.

As for his ability, he clearly has the greatest command of his voice. It's just that he likes to take it to odd, screechy places that, while technically impressive, don't do anything for me. But it does get people talking, as noted by his performance of Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire," done in a style very similar to that used by Dilana Robichaux on Rockstar: Supernova (which Randy Jackson attributed to Jeff Buckley for some reason).

That being said, it seems like Adam tones it down enough in later weeks to get unceasing praise from judges and mentors alike (or at least that's what I've read), so he seems to have the inside track.

Odds of winning: 5-2

They're Listening - Sort Of

While I've not seen any of the new season of American Idol, I am happy to report that Fox did implement two of my suggestions, at least partially. There will be more Hollywood this time around (but no reduction in auditions that I've heard of, though I understand the freak show aspect will be toned down), and they did add a judge, which isn't quite the shake-up I'd hoped for but it's something.

No check yet from Fox for the consulting, though. They must have sent it to my old address.

Ending on a High Note

It says something about this season of American Idol that the most genuine and surprising moment was its most important one. I won't get into the meaning of David Cook's upset of presumptive Idol David Archuleta, but rather how this made the rest of the season look by comparison.

For all the talk of this being the most talented group of finalists ever (which, of course, is said every year), it was certainly the least interesting group of finalists ever. I never felt like there was a specific performance that stood out. While people on the show still talk about Fantasia's rendition of "Summertime" or, on the flip side, Sanjaya's attempt at "You Really Got Me," there's nothing in this season that we'll talk about in the same way.

I think too that having a group that was so professional didn't help, either. The emergence of new talent is one of the few genuinely interesting aspects of the show, especially when it takes a bit of a sideways turn (Soul Patrol!). This season, contestants were fully formed, and rarely grew (or shrank) before us.

And with the ratings taking a dip from past seasons, it's an open question whether viewers were disinterested in this group or in the show as a whole. Either way, it's probably time for a change. Which leads us to:

MAKING IT BETTER: American Idol

Herewith are five suggestions for pumping some life into the franchise:

1. Fewer wacky auditions, more Hollywood - I've never enjoyed the Bataan death march of wacky auditions. There's a thick dark line between the truly entertaining awfulness and the poor saps the show sets up for a fall, and the more Fox jumps over it the more obvious it is that they're milking things.

I'd take a couple hours of audition coverage and move it to Hollywood. There's more drama there, and there'd be a greater opportunity to even out coverage time among contestants.

2. Shake up the judging panel - the predictability of this group was more evident than ever this season. From Randy's continued focus on pitch problems to Simon's negativity to Paula taking up residence on Neptune, the judges added even less to the show this season than usual.

Rather than give them some input on voting, a la Dancing With the Stars, I'd suggest rotating judges out for certain weeks, or even rotating Randy or Paula out for a full season (or more). One of the few fresh things about America's Next Top Model's judges has been the transition from Janice Dickinson to Twiggy to Paulina Porizkova, each of whom has brought something different to panel. My suggestion: replace Paula with Toni Braxton, who is somewhat less crazy than Paula and could use the work.

3. Introduce a number to vote against a contestant - set up a toll number where viewers would call and select from a menu the contestant they want to vote against. These votes would be subtracted from each contestant's vote total. Donate money from these calls to Idol Gives Back to give the negative a positive spin.

4. Restrict the use of instruments - rather than have half of the contestants rooted behind an instrument, give them four chances to play along over the course of the finals. And to make things more interesting, they can only use the same instrument in three of the four performances.

5. Take a season off - it may be time to give America a breather and let the talent pool refresh a bit. So rather than get all new contestants next season, go back and open things up to any contestant who made it to Hollywood but was not a finalist. Bring back Frenchie Davis, the Brittenum twins, and that kid this year who always wore a tie. Fans always have a couple of favorites who didn't make the finals, so this may reinvigorate the fan base a bit.

Three Guys a Girl and a Singing Place

We're down to the final four contestants on American Idol (you can thank me later for not writing about contestants five through 24):

David Archuleta has been the once and future Idol pretty much from the start. He's not been in the bottom group at all, and will likely not face elimination until the finals. He's a 16 year old who likes to sing inspirational songs, so he gets love from pre-teens and grannies alike. Or at least those who aren't sick of his weekly dose of hope, love and dreams. That and his sometimes irritating naivety may be the only thing that can do him in.

Odds of winning: 1 to 4

Jason Castro is living proof that you can wear dreads and live in Texas without someone named Joe Jack trying to beat you to death with a tire iron (although he's from what looks to be a Dallas exurb, which may not have as many good ole boys as it once did). I'm not a fan of the dreads, but they do draw attention away from his nose, which is a point for those who say that things grow bigger in Texas.

Castro is a bit of a hipster doofus, appealing to the Jack Johnson crowd with his penchant for performing only with his acoustic guitar (or, once, a ukelele). His performances are often compared to late-night dorm sing-alongs or other settings which suggest a certain herbal mood enhancement. He winds up in the bottom group on occasion, thanks to a limited vocal range and the occasional odd song selection (his choice of "Memories" during Andrew Lloyd Webber week stands out). I can't see him making it past next week, and am a little surprised he outlasted a couple of the more recently-dispatched women.

Odds of winning: 25 to 1

David Cook is this year's rocker, though he's only about 70 percent as rock (or as pretentious) as Chris Daughtry. He's also taking the Blake Lewis/Chris Sligh approach by rearranging songs to fit his style, though not hitting the Lionel Ritchie-as-Coldplay depths thanks to mostly using existing arrangements (such as Chris Cornell's version of "Billie Jean"). And, like Daughtry, he's the finalist who could put out an album next week if he had to.

Unlike Daughtry, Cook will make the finals. And even though he'll probably lose, I think he'd be happy with continuing the Daughtry comparison through his debut album, at least.

Odds of winning: 8 to 1

Syesha Mercado is the last female contestant standing, which is pretty impressive for someone who has no discernible personality. She's pleasant enough, and fits the traditional diva role well enough, but otherwise she's a bit of a cipher. We know she acts a bit, and can mimic a crying baby pretty well, but beyond that it's like a shadowy government agency has deleted her past.

Mercado is also the last African-American contestant standing, so if you put much stock into gender or ethnic voting blocs you can make the argument that she'll be in the finals. I don't think that'll happen, but you never know. Not that making the finals would help her, as Archuleta is a better diva than she is.

Odds of winning: 11 to 1