American Idol - Four to Go

Last year, I handicapped American Idol when it got down to the final four, so I figure I should do so again this season. However, thanks to the magic of the DVR, I'm six weeks behind. So take these with an even larger grain of salt than usual (remember, I had David Archuleta at 1-4, and look how that turned out).

Kris Allen - I don't have much of a read on him, as he didn't get a lot of focus during the early part of the season. He's done pretty well in the first couple of episodes (and clearly does well going forward), but to me he's still a bit of a non-entity, at least compared to the other three. I suppose he'd be the "cute" one who makes the top five but never wins. I don't expect he'll be the guy to break the streak. But I may be underestimating him.

Odds of winning: 15-1

Danny Gokey - Unlike Kris, Danny did get a lot of attention in the early going, between auditioning with his best friend (who did not make the semifinals) and his tragic backstory (his wife died due to complications from heart surgery). But he sings well enought that he'd probably have made it this far regardless. Paula predicted he'd make the finals, and I can't say that I disagree.

Odds of winning: 6-1

Allison Iraheta - Allison was clearly the best of this season's subpar group of women. That she's made it this far isn't particularly surprising, as (from what I can tell) she's been very consistent and performs well in her rocker niche. Like Syesha Mercado last season, she's well-positioned from a demographic standpoint, as she's not only the lone remaining woman, she's also the only remaining teen and the only non-white competitor still in the field. While that didn't work out so well for Syesha, it may help that Allison appears to actually have a personality.

Odds of winning: 7-1

Adam Lambert - He's the other person Paula put into the final in her early season prognosticating, and despite a scare last week he seems like he'll make it. And while I don't dislike Adam per se, I can't say he's a fave. I'm not a fan of his emoish look, and in close ups I could swear we're looking at someone closer to 37 than 27.

As for his ability, he clearly has the greatest command of his voice. It's just that he likes to take it to odd, screechy places that, while technically impressive, don't do anything for me. But it does get people talking, as noted by his performance of Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire," done in a style very similar to that used by Dilana Robichaux on Rockstar: Supernova (which Randy Jackson attributed to Jeff Buckley for some reason).

That being said, it seems like Adam tones it down enough in later weeks to get unceasing praise from judges and mentors alike (or at least that's what I've read), so he seems to have the inside track.

Odds of winning: 5-2