Showing posts with label dead pool. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dead pool. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Bring Out Your Dead - The Ted Marshall Open 2015-16

So as you might have guessed from my not recapping all of the broadcast network upfronts this year, there was nothing really standing out in any offerings, either good or bad. For every interesting show (like the return of the Muppets), there were three shows were the only reasonable response was "meh."

Which also carried over to this year's running of the Ted Marshall Open, the Internet's greatest TV dead pool. Last year's slew of planned final seasons led to this year's dearth of them, and with few of the new shows really standing out for suckitude, this was one of the harder years to come up with 10 shows comfortably in the cancellation zone. Still, I made my picks, which are (from 10 to 1, most likely to get cancelled to least):

10 - American Idol. This was the no-brainer pick, given all of the press when it was announced this would be the show's final season.

9 - Truth Be Told.  It's this year's generic multi-relationship comedy, with the added burden of being on NBC's Friday night lineup, needing to fend off The Amazing Race and ABC's TGIF lineup. It does not help that the show already has had a name change.

8 - Blood and Oil. It's Dallas for a new generation, starring Don Johnson and Chace Crawford! But it's up against football and The Good Wife. And has Once Upon a Time as a lead in. I couldn't see that wizards and fairy tale set naturally flowing into something so soapy and unmagical.

7 - Of Kings and Prophets. I took a bit of a flyer here, ignoring my usual rule about avoiding midseason shows that aren't a lock to air, as a prime time soap set in Biblical times seems ripe for being absolutely awful.

6 - The Mysteries of Laura. Still not sure how NBC brought this back - it seemed like it was on the cancellation side of the bubble - but as dead pool practice suggests, once a show is on your list you don't take it off.

5 - The Odd Couple. Also not sure why CBS brought this back.

4 - The Player. People betting on crime in Las Vegas is a little too high concept this season.

3 - The Guide to Surviving Life. Now Cooper Barret's Guide to Surviving Life, it features its title millenial giving advice to Gen Z on how to survive your early 20s. How this wound up on Fox rather than the CW I'll never know. Also a midseason show, so I've violated my rule twice.

2 - Heroes Reborn. I'm hopeful that it will recapture some of the magic of the first season or two, but am worried that it will just take up where things limped to the end and try to make us care about a bunch of new characters without improving the overall story.

1 - Undateable. The other generic (to my eyes, anyway) dating sitcom NBC is throwing at us on Friday nights. But one that managed to get renewed, so it gets put lower on the list. I'm still not sure how a show called Undateable works on Friday, when the people who are home are those who couldn't find a date.

And, as usual, the top ten choices among all participants include a few shows I did not pick.

Dr. Ken - Ken Jeong's TGIF sitcom, where he plays a doctor trying to balance work and family. The setup isn't particularly inventive (though does it have to be for TGIF?), and Jeong can be a lot to take (I wish I'd developed Changnesia for some of the Community episodes where his character figured prominently). The premiere won its time slot (not a particularly noteworthy accomplishment), and was the second most watched show of the night for broadcast (behind Shark Tank). Interested to see how much viewership falls off by this week.

Blindspot - One of the more high concept new shows, but I left it off because I thought (a) it's coming from the people behind The Blacklist, who have proven that they can do this kind of show, and (b) NBC did a nice job promoting the show over the summer. The promos were a good mix of exposition and mystery, and made me want to watch.

Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris - I passed on this because (a) I'm loathe to bet against the NPH, and (b) it's different enough (and likely cheap enough to produce relative to scripted shows) that even if ratings are middling it could stick around. I also thought the format of the show would allow for easier changes towards bits that appeal to viewers. NBC's been pushing it heavily on Today, which I expect will help.

Uncle Buck - This was apparently the one show where I stuck to my rule about midseason shows. I will say that I'm intrigued that the show is going to feature an African-American cast. Don't know if that will matter in the end.

So I think I feel pretty good about my choices, and in dodging some of the shows chosen by conventional wisdom (Blindspot was the highest-rated new show last week, while Best Time Ever was tied for 24th). Here's hoping for title number two!

Monday, December 29, 2014

That Championship Season

Well, it finally happened. I won the Ted Marshall Open. Mine was one of two perfect entries, but I took the crown thanks to my guess on the tiebreaker (the price of the higher-priced showcase on the January 2, 2014 The Price is Right). I'll take it.

What really sealed my win, though, was CBS sticking with Reckless, a summer legal drama that the network kept on the schedule despite its mediocre performance. Once it aired after August 31, the one entry that could have beaten me at that point went out of the running.

Hey, it only took 14 tries. And it's a good thing, too, as I have a feeling either The Mysteries of Laura or Stalker (or both) are going to torpedo my 15 annual entry.

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Bring Out Your Dead 2011

Another year, another entry in the Ted Marshall Open TV death pool. As in years past, you choose ten shows that you think aren't going to be around for the next TV season, and you get 20 points for each show that goes away, with bonus points based on how you rank them (10 points for the show you most expect to get the axe, 9 points for the second-most, etc.). So who did I go with this year?

10 points - Desperate Housewives, it was announced last month that this will be the final season for the residents of Wisteria Lane, probably for the best as it's likely going to spend this year getting its clock cleaned by The Good Wife over on CBS. Truthfully, ABC should have cut their losses and cut this show when they did the time jump a couple of seasons ago.

9 points - One Tree Hill, also announced last month that this would be the venerable CW show's final season. I have no real comment on that, having never watched a second of the show.

8 points - Chuck, OK fans, NBC has already announced that the show is going away after this season, so please don't send me hate mail. You can send cans of chickpeas or inflatable giraffes or whatever signature item Chuck may have to NBC in an attempt to change their minds, but I think this time it's for real.

7 points - Rules of Engagement, now in the territory of shows I think will get cancelled, I went with this one as it is the only first-run scripted program scheduled for Saturday night. Make whatever jokes you want about a Friday night death slot, but at least each network is trying to program the night. Being stuck in the Saturday night gulag with Cops, college football and reruns suggests that CBS isn't particularly concerned with how this show fares.

6 points - How to Be a Gentleman, an effete magazine columnist links up with a manly man to learn how to be more masculine in this show that will air in the post-Big Bang Theory timeslot. The casting gives some indication as to how the show landed such a nice slot - it includes Kevin Dillon, Dave Foley, and Mary Lynn Rajskub - but it is one of the least well-reviewed new shows, and will be competing with The X Factor, Parks & Rec and Charlie's Angels. Not a good combination.

5 points - Man-Up, which is one of the many shows ABC has tried to foist on us over the last few years about men being men, not the least of which is its lead in, the Tim Allen-led Last Man Standing. Odd that these two manly men shows will lead into Dancing With the Stars and Body of Proof, both of which you think would skew female. I suppose a lack of manly competition at the 8 pm hour may give these shows some life?

I had considered going with Last Man Standing as well, as there is almost nothing nice being written about it, but after getting burned by Jim Belushi for years while incorrectly guessing the demise of According to Jim I get a little gun shy going after older male sitcom stars in relationship comedies.

4 points - Free Agents - speaking of poorly-reviewed shows, most of the real vitriol I've seen regarding new series has been for this latest adaption of a British comedy. At least until today, when Matt Gilbert of the Boston Globe kinda sorta said it was OK. It makes me wonder if most of the spleen vented at the show was over the ongoing inability of Americans to properly convert British shows. Regardless, it's apparently a stinkeroo that will not be saved by cast members like Hank Azaria and Anthony Head.

3 points - Whitney, one of NBC's two shows related to Chelsea Handler (the other, Are You There, Vodka?, bows in midseason, and while I was sorely tempted to choose it I've been swearing off midseason shows as the ones I pick tend to get renewed), starring comedian, Comedy Central roast regular and frequent Chelsea Lately guest Whitney Cummings. I've never seen her perform and don't watch Chelsea Lately or the Comedy Central roasts, but I know that both are edgier than your usual network fare, which makes it sad that she's been saddled with what might be the least edgy sitcom concept - the continuing saga of an unmarried couple living together. Reviews have been much more positive for Two Broke Girls, the CBS show she co-created and co-produces. Expect guest appearances starting sometime in January.

2 points - Unforgettable, the CBS show about a homicide detective who remembers everything from every day of her life - except, inconveniently, the details around the murder of her sister. Pretty much every review I've read of the show notes the irony of a show with this title being so, well, forgettable. Poppy Montgomery apparently adds nothing memorable outside of her first name, with this apparently being another in the long line of interchangable police procedurals.

1 point - Happy Endings, one of the 47 relationship comedies to premiere last season and apparently the only one that got renewed. Not sure why I went for this and not, say H8r, the CW's reality show where disliked celebs try to convince their biggest detractors that they aren't so bad. In retrospect I really should have gone with H8r, especially as Happy Endings will get to live in the shadow of Modern Family. Not that that helped Cougar Town all that much. Looking at the time slot, I could have also gone with I Hate My Teenage Daughter, which has racked up some of the most caustic reviews I've seen this season. So maybe a goof here.

And, as usual, there is an entry in the contest consisting of the top 10 shows picked by all participants. The ones I managed not to pick:

All My Children and One Life to Live, both of which I kind of assumed were already off the air, even though they were on the entry form. Pissed that I left so many easy points on the board.

The Playboy Club, NBC's attempt remora off of Mad Men. It's been getting fairly tepid reviews, and I'd toyed with the idea of including it, but in the end figured there were shows out there more likely to get cancelled.

Suburgatory, which I'm really surprised to see here based on the variety of positive reviews it's picked up. I suppose there's some resistance to the trope of the suburbs being hell compared to the city - it's not the most original premise - but from what I've read the show does manage to rise above its beginnings and fare well. Time slot may be a factor here, too - it's up against The X Factor and Survivor - so maybe ABC will do me a solid and swap it with Happy Endings?

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Dry Hole

In case you missed it, your first casualty of the new TV season was Lone Star, the one man, two families drama that actually got some good press going into the season (which is why I left it off my dead pool list even though I noted during sweeps that I wasn't interested). Unfortunately, all the good press couldn't give it the edge it needed against Dancing With the Stars, the CBS sitcom block, and the strong debut of The Event.

Speaking of NBC, they may provide my first hit of the year, given how Chase is squandering whatever lead-in it gets from The Event. Keep your fingers crossed!

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Bring Out Your Dead for 2010

I've once again set out to prove what little I know by entering the Ted Marshall Open, the Interweb's greatest TV dead pool. Ten shows, 20 points per show that gets canceled with bonus points based on how you rank your choices. My picks for the year:

1 - Smallville - widely announced as being in its final season, so easy points. I could have had even more easy points if I'd remembered that As the World Turns was packing it in this season. In my defense, this is the first year that non-prime time programming is eligible, and I thought that whatever long-running soap was ending had already done so.

Still, left points on the table, which is galling.

2 - Outlaw - I don't think it gets any worse than Friday at 10 on NBC for a time slot. Throw in a show with an odd premise (roguish Supreme Court justice steps down to take cases for ordinary folk) and it seems like a goner. Makes me wonder just who Jimmy Smits pissed off.

3 - Hellcats - a pre-law student needs money for school, so she parlays her gymnastics experience to get a scholarship as a cheerleader. It looks like it's trying to meld Glee with the Bring it On franchise, but as it's on the CW it will fail at both. It's also in the post-America's Next Top Model slot, which you think would help but never does.

4 - Raising Hope - Most of what I've read about this show is not positive.

5 - Defenders - I know two wrongs don't make a right, but with my luck Belushi and O'Connell will combine to win a Peabody.

6 - Chase - this story of a US Marshal and the criminals she tracks down just feels generic. It's also about 10 years too late to benefit from The Fugitive.

7 - Better With You - speaking of generic, here's the latest attempt at a multi-generational family romantic sitcom. I swear there's like a dozen scripts in a cave somewhere and the networks just change the names around every time they try this. My only fear with this show is that, nestled in ABC's Wednesday comedy block, it will be inoffensive enough to survive.

8 - Bob's Burgers - I'm hoping that this will be the season's Goode Family, existing only to provide faintly humorous content in a space that needs temporary filling. I can't see it cracking Fox's existing Sunday of animation.

9 - Running Wilde - this show scares the hell out of me, as it seems so ridiculous on its face that it should be a lock for cancellation. But you throw in Will Arnett and you think anything is possible.

10 - Shedding for the Wedding - some random NBC mid-season reality show that I assume is about brides trying to lose weight to get into their wedding dress. I suppose I'm way out of the target demographic for this, so I may be misjudging how it'll do. Or it'll be so bad that it won't air at all, either way.

Of course, there are some shows that made the top ten shows picked by all contestants that I didn't choose. They are:

Outsourced - the potential for this to fail is pretty high, and if it veers to far into lame ethnic stereotyping it's not going to last. But NBC was pretty tolerant with its sitcoms last year (thank you for renewing Community, BTW), so I left this off. It's the second most popular consensus pick, which usually means cancellation but not always (both Gary Unmarried and The Ghost Whisperer got a second season after landing in this spot; maybe you just need to be a CBS show to survive?).

Detroit 1-8-7 - thought of it, had some mixed reviews, but then I thought it might be a nice dose of action against The Good Wife and Parenthood. So I left it off, even if I do think it's the dumbest name for a new show this season. It's the consensus third-place show.

My Generation - I really should have put this in, as this is the sort of show I hate, with its fake nostalgia and forced surprise that the future you dream of as a teen rarely, if ever, comes to pass. I'm kind of pissed at myself now for not picking it. It's the fourth place pick, which just confirms that I should have trusted my instinct.

The Event - the latest attempt at forging drama out of government conspiracy. I'm not sure about it, but I'm hoping the current political climate makes it more appealing. Maybe Glenn Beck or one of his crowd will start referencing it like it's a documentary. That might help.

The Good Guys - there could be worse things than an old cop-new cop show. Like Bradley Whitford's sunglasses and mustache. Not crazy about the Friday time slot, but given the competition it could win regularly.

No Ordinary Family - I can see why this is on here, as it's really high concept and follows the collapse of Heroes a little too closely. Still, I think making this about a family rather than strangers is a nice direction, and I can't complain if I get to see Julie Benz on my TV every week. But I can see where this could go wrong quickly.

So there it is. Look for my complaining throughout the season.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Bring Out Your Dead

Do Not Disturb has rung in the new TV season by becoming its first casualty. For those of you who missed it (or as I like to call them, everyone), it was a sitcom set in a hotel that starred Jerry O'Connell. I don't think I need to go into much more detail to get at why it was canceled, do I?

But this does bring up the subject of this year's Ted Marshall Open, the TV dead pool that used to be named for some Z-grade hack actress whose name I apparently can't mention in this context unless I want to get sued. Do Not Disturb was on my list, so I've got 9 shows to go. My entry:

ER - The venerable medical drama gets its send-off, finally. I'm only tuning in if they figure out a way to bring back Mark Green.

Valentine - This CW series crosses Cupid and Melrose Place by putting mythological beings into the real world (well, Los Angeles), where they live in the same building and do whatever it is that Earth-bound gods do.

This sounded pretty craptacular when I first heard about it, and given how it (and all of the CW's new Sunday lineup) tanked upon premiering last night, I'm looking forward to getting reruns of America's Next Top Model back by Thanksgiving.

Do Not Disturb - see above

Harper's Island - I took a chance on this CBS mid-season show about a destination wedding that happens on an island that may or may not still be the hunting ground of a serial killer. I try not to choose mid-season shows in case they never get aired, but this sounded just dopey enough to give a try. Unfortunately for me, the one review I've read of its teaser suggests it's going to be very good.

Crusoe - I've never liked it when NBC has adapted history or literary works for miniseries, so you can imagine my level of dread for turning one into a series. And while it came too late to factor into my decision, I'm heartened by this piece of research noting that Friday night shows have the worst renewal rate of any night. NBC is just 1 for 14 since 1999, so even better for me.

The Ex-List - As much as I enjoyed Elizabeth Reaser's run as Rebecca/Ava on Grey's Anatomy, I'm a little dismayed that she parlayed it into My Name is Earl done over as a romantic dramedy. In this care, Reaser's character goes to a medium and is told that the love of her life is someone she already rejected. So she now has to go through her exes to find out which reject she needs to take back. As quirky as that might sound, I'm not sure that the average person watching CBS on Friday nights is going to take to this.

Lipstick Jungle - For those who want the Sex and the City vibe without, you know, the sex.

Life on Mars - Now here I may have pressed a bit. I went with this show based on a gut feeling that ABC won't be able to adapt the show for American audiences. That and I didn't care for the one promo I saw this summer. Pretty flimsy, really. I am holding out hope that the crowd won't stick around for it, but there's not much competition on Thursday nights. Unless Eleventh Hour turns out to be a bigger hit than I expected (and really, that show would probably be a better choice here).

The Philanthropist - another mid-season, but it's hard to think that a show about a renegade billionaire fighting for social justice will stick. I suppose it has a shot airing against yet another series of The Bachelor, but I'm betting that people will opt to either watch CSI: Miami or go to bed.

According to Jim - adapting a principle from standard dead pools, once you put a show on the list, keep it there until it dies. I wouldn't do this with any show, but at this point the demise of Jim is getting to be a little personal. Probably too much so.

It turns out that six of these shows are among the top ten chose by pool entrants (Mars, Disturb, Ex List, Valentine, Crusoe, ER). So what four did I pass on that others took?

Gary Unmarried - How I passed on a show with Jay Mohr and Paula Marshall is beyond me. These should be free points. But it's in a good time slot (only Bones offers significant competition) and is protected (so to speak) by veteran shows The New Adventures of Old Christine and Criminal Minds. And if last week's numbers are to be believed, the show built on Christine's lead. So maybe I dodged a bullet here?

Knight Rider - thought it may pull in enough nostalgia/kitsch viewers to linger. From what I've read it's not very good, but we'll see if NBC has enough faith in it to keep it going or move it when something else tanks.

Kath and Kim - I was pretty conflicted about this one, as it looks positively awful from the 300 hours of promotion it got during the Olympics. But I feared that this would be one of those cases where I don't get the humor of the show while some broad segment of the population that I'm not in does get it. So I gave it a pass.

The Mentalist - this latest attempt to foist Simon Baker on the viewing public is yet another show where the protagonist has unique problem-solving abilities that may or may not excuse some set of character flaws. It's as if Jonathan Edward starred on House but with less abrasiveness and drug abuse (the show is on CBS, after all). I'd given this consideration, and then panicked a bit when the show premiered strongly, thinking I'd chosen it. But I didn't, and thus avoided the first show to get renewed this season. Good for me.