Three Guys a Girl and a Singing Place

We're down to the final four contestants on American Idol (you can thank me later for not writing about contestants five through 24):

David Archuleta has been the once and future Idol pretty much from the start. He's not been in the bottom group at all, and will likely not face elimination until the finals. He's a 16 year old who likes to sing inspirational songs, so he gets love from pre-teens and grannies alike. Or at least those who aren't sick of his weekly dose of hope, love and dreams. That and his sometimes irritating naivety may be the only thing that can do him in.

Odds of winning: 1 to 4

Jason Castro is living proof that you can wear dreads and live in Texas without someone named Joe Jack trying to beat you to death with a tire iron (although he's from what looks to be a Dallas exurb, which may not have as many good ole boys as it once did). I'm not a fan of the dreads, but they do draw attention away from his nose, which is a point for those who say that things grow bigger in Texas.

Castro is a bit of a hipster doofus, appealing to the Jack Johnson crowd with his penchant for performing only with his acoustic guitar (or, once, a ukelele). His performances are often compared to late-night dorm sing-alongs or other settings which suggest a certain herbal mood enhancement. He winds up in the bottom group on occasion, thanks to a limited vocal range and the occasional odd song selection (his choice of "Memories" during Andrew Lloyd Webber week stands out). I can't see him making it past next week, and am a little surprised he outlasted a couple of the more recently-dispatched women.

Odds of winning: 25 to 1

David Cook is this year's rocker, though he's only about 70 percent as rock (or as pretentious) as Chris Daughtry. He's also taking the Blake Lewis/Chris Sligh approach by rearranging songs to fit his style, though not hitting the Lionel Ritchie-as-Coldplay depths thanks to mostly using existing arrangements (such as Chris Cornell's version of "Billie Jean"). And, like Daughtry, he's the finalist who could put out an album next week if he had to.

Unlike Daughtry, Cook will make the finals. And even though he'll probably lose, I think he'd be happy with continuing the Daughtry comparison through his debut album, at least.

Odds of winning: 8 to 1

Syesha Mercado is the last female contestant standing, which is pretty impressive for someone who has no discernible personality. She's pleasant enough, and fits the traditional diva role well enough, but otherwise she's a bit of a cipher. We know she acts a bit, and can mimic a crying baby pretty well, but beyond that it's like a shadowy government agency has deleted her past.

Mercado is also the last African-American contestant standing, so if you put much stock into gender or ethnic voting blocs you can make the argument that she'll be in the finals. I don't think that'll happen, but you never know. Not that making the finals would help her, as Archuleta is a better diva than she is.

Odds of winning: 11 to 1