The Late Shift Redux

You've likely heard by now that Jay Leno's nightly 10 pm show on NBC is toast, and that after the Olympics the network is moving him to 11:35, where he'll do a half-hour show, with Conan and Jimmy Fallon each moving a half-hour later (no word on what happens to Carson Daly, who can't really move a half-hour later as it would put him into time held by the affiliates). The move has raised two major questions.

1. Will Conan stay or will he go?  I'll admit to having no idea how Conan's contract is worded, but most stories on this note that he'll have to approve the move, and that rather than doing so he could walk away and start up on another network (Fox gets mentioned here most often, followed by ABC).

There are arguements both for and against Conan leaving. On the pro-leaving side, there's the idea that this suggested move is an indication that NBC still favors Jay, so sticking around makes no sense. There's also the lure of creating a new franchise and helping another network develop a late night presence. And, of course, there's the benefit of getting away from NBC, a network apparently incapable of engineering a smooth late night hosting transition. The move could also allow Conan to return to New York, which seems more like his sort of town.

On the other hand, Conan is the host of the Tonight Show, the most venerated property in late night. It's not something one gives up blithley. Also, there's a good chance that this move will only last this season, as if the new late night Leno show fails to deliver (which is almost certainly the case), it would go away and allow Conan to return to his rightful place at 11:35. There will be damage to repair, but if Conan could build a following out of his meager Late Night debut in 1993, he can do the same here.

I'm guessing that Conan will walk if NBC commits to this plan. It's clear that he's going to be second fiddle to Leno until Leno decides to drive off into the sunset.

Then there's the other question:

2. What is NBC going to show at 10 o'clock for the rest of the season? It's not easy to fill five hours of programming a week, but NBC may be less screwed here than they seem, as:

• Friday Night Lights will be back, and can either take up an hour at 10 or allow another show to move.
• Law & Order will also be back, and while it's currently scheduled it's also got some history as a hole-plugger. Ditto for Dateline, which you have to figure will get at least one 10 pm slot.
• There are a variety of USA network shows that could be run, including Law & Order: Criminal Intent, Burn Notice, Psych and White Collar.
• They could order more episdoes of Trauma, which they cancelled but then brought back for a limited number of new episodes.
• They could also monkey around with their unscripted shows, as they have a new season of The Apprentice and Jerry Seinfeld's The Marriage Ref coming this spring and could, theoretically, hustle America's Got Talent into an early premier (though that would be reaching). Heck, why not a special week-long return of Deal or No Deal?

Most, if not all of these ideas would fill time rather than build an audience. Based on the way the Jay Leno Show's ratings fell over the course of the season, that's probably enough. Personally, I'd like to see them give some of the USA shows a tryout, but I expect we'll get retreads.

While there's still a great deal of uncertainty in this situation, there is one thing that is absolutely certain: this is a good year to be pitching a new show. NBC's going to need several come September.